Tigers basketball coach Tubby Smith knows this may be the end of his time in Memphis

ORLANDO, Fla. — Asked if he had coached his last game at Memphis, Tubby Smith said, simply, “Who knows?”

Answer: He does. Everyone does.

You could hear it in the way Smith phrased the question, with a tone of weary resignation. He sounded like a 66-year-old man who has been through this get-rid-of-the-coach circus twice before.

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So, yes, barring unexpected developments, it certainly appears as if Smith will be dismissed as the Memphis basketball coach some time in the coming week.

Any hope that Smith and his Tigers would go on a magical run to save Smith’s job was dispelled Saturday when Cincinnati defeated Memphis by double digits for the third time this season, 70-60.

“It was a tale of two halves,” said Smith.

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One glorious, one grim.

The glorious: Memphis came out hitting everything. Raynere Thornton, Malik Rhodes and David Nickelberry all hit 3-pointers. Jamal Johnson went 4-of-4 from deep. The Tigers skipped into the locker room with a 42-29 lead and with folks all over the country pulling for the delicious drama that another Memphis victory might bring.

The grim: Cincinnati opened the second half on  a 21-2 run and that was pretty much that. Memphis scored exactly five field goals after halftime, going 5-of-27 from the field.

“We came out in the second half flat, we weren’t focused,” said Johnson.

Which isn’t really true.

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Here’s what’s true: The Tigers are a perfectly average college basketball team. A team that is ranked 105 in the country according to the RPI and 160 in the country according to KenPom.com.

This does not take anything away from the effort or passion of the players, which was often inspirational. But Smith himself had a hard time making a persuasive case for the Memphis Tigers to be in the NIT, saying, “We really didn’t beat anyone of significance, I guess you could say.”

If Memphis doesn’t get an NIT invitation, Smith will become just the second Memphis coach since 1951 to fail to qualify for the postseason in either of his first two seasons. Josh Pastner, John Calipari, Tic Price, Larry Finch, Wayne Yates, Gene Bartow, Moe Iba, Dean Ehlers, Bob Vanatta and Eugene Lambert all made the postseason in their first two years on the job. The only coach who didn’t — Dana Kirk — then went to the NCAAs for five straight years.

So Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin can get up after the game and suggest that Memphis is nuts to even think about firing Smith. And in a vacuum, what he says makes a lot of sense. The Tigers did get better throughout the year. They did win 7 of their last 9 games.

But the Memphis administrators won’t make the decision in a vacuum. They can’t afford to, honestly. Not when attendance and athletic department contributions are both cratering, not when Smith has failed to recruit a single player from Memphis and not when the coach’s lawyer said Friday that increasing attendance isn’t part of his client’s job.

Indeed, the lawyer — Ricky Lefft — said a lot of incendiary things about the Memphis situation. It was enough to make you wonder if he knew that Smith was already toast. Among other things, Lefft suggested local icon Penny Hardaway may have hindered Smith’s ability to recruit local players and said that Memphis administrators and boosters misled Smith about the university’s future in the Big 12.

Might there be some truth to both those accusations? Absolutely, there might be. But that’s still not a reason to publicly blast his client’s employer. At least, not if Smith wants to stay in the job.

But the comments about attendance were in some ways even more revealing.  Lefft said “It’s not the coach’s responsibility to put butts in the seats.” That’s an odd thing to say considering Smith’s contract includes $1.1 million for television and radio appearances and another $1.1 million for public relations. There may be schools where a coach can just focus on basketball, but Memphis is not one of those schools.

All that will be part of the “evaluation” that Memphis president M. David Rudd said will be undertaken now that the season is concluded. My own suspicion is that the evaluation has already been done.

That’s why Smith looked so resigned when the game was over. That’s why he answered the question about his future with a question of his own.

“Who knows?”

Smith knows.

Everybody does.