Tigers basketball mailbag: Rykhoek's return, recruiting targets and more

Welcome back to another edition of the Memphis basketball mailbag. I'm writing this today from sunny Tampa, where the weather has cooperated nicely for this beat writer.

We got a lot of late submissions this week, so some questions had to be shelved for next week even though they were quite good. Remember you can send me submissions for the mailbag any time over the course of the week via Twitter (@mgiannotto) or email (mark.giannotto@commercialappeal.com).

This time around, we'll address the potential return of Chad Rykhoek, road trip protocol, recruiting targets and, of course, the Tigers' postseason hopes. Let's dive right in, so I can go soak up some rays while I can.

I got a lot of questions about injured forward Chad Rykhoek this week and when he might be able to get back on the court for the Tigers this season. As noted earlier this week, Coach Tubby Smith said Tuesday that the 6-foot-11 Rykhoek is currently running and doing slide drills, but has yet to return to practice. He suffered a dislocated ankle on Dec. 17 at Oklahoma and the original prognosis for a return was six to eight weeks. Saturday will be exactly seven weeks since the injury occurred.

Someone actually asked Rykhoek on Twitter about his status Thursday. He responded with “2-3 weeks maybe.” (Sidenote: His profile picture with Selena Gomez is hilarious.)

Even when Rykhoek does come back, I don’t expect him to suddenly emerge as a major contributor. Keep in mind, he was only averaging 5.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 16 minutes per game before getting injured and it’s going to take him a while to get back into game shape. Given his lengthy injury history, and the fact that Memphis plans to have him back next year for a sixth year of eligibility, being cautious is probably the wise approach here.

What Memphis really needs from Rykhoek is about five minutes per half as a reserve in order to give frontcourt players such as Dedric Lawson, K.J. Lawson and Jimario Rivers a break. Right now, the Tigers have no interior depth whatsoever and Smith always has to go small with sophomore Craig Randall or freshman Keon Clergeot. Against Central Florida Saturday, for instance, it’d be nice for Smith to have a 6-foot-11 presence to turn to on the bench, particularly if foul trouble crops up.

So is Rykhoek’s return important? Definitely. Will it make-or-break the Tigers’ postseason hopes? Unlikely. They are 9-3 without him, after all. 

Good evening. This is a 'curious' question..not about a specific player, etc. When we have schedules like this week, with out of town travel, two games in two days & travel back home, how do the players manage to keep up with their class schedules/studies? 

Thanks again for making the Facebook page.

Paula Hall

First off, thank you, Paula, for allowing me the opening to plug my new Facebook page for Memphis basketball coverage. Go check out https://www.facebook.com/memphishoopsbymark/ when you get a chance. Hopefully, over time, I'll have some cool extra features up there.

As for the question ... Though beat writers get to enjoy some fun in the sun on road trips like this one to Florida, the Tigers’ schedule involves more structure. They arrived in Tampa Wednesday night, bused to Orlando after Thursday’s win at South Florida, had a shoot-around at noon at Central Florida Friday, and then will jump on a plane back to Memphis following Saturday’s game.

In between all that, school work is very much part of the daily schedule. When the Tigers have to miss class for travel, they bring along an academic counselor for the road trip. Players also have mandatory daily study halls.

So am I, but Tubby Smith has not opened his practices to reporters since I came on the beat. I can tell you the Tigers seem to end most practices with free-throw shooting since that’s the part I catch a glimpse of when the team holds media availability. It has also become clear that Smith is shortening the length of his practices, doing more film study and taking additional days off recently in order to preserve his starters’ energy.   

Here’s your weekly recruiting fix, although I should note that the Tigers are trying to keep their recruiting priorities close to the vest at the moment. With that in mind, I did some Twitter stalking to figure out exactly who from outside the Memphis area that Tigers fans should keep an eye on.

For 2017, Memphis would love to add another big man late this spring and there seem to be two targets to watch in the coming months.

• Six-foot-9 center Malik Ondigo, an Arizona native currently playing for Putnam Science Prep (Conn.), is considered one of the top-rated available big men. The Memphis coaching staff has reportedly been out to see him play twice over the past month.  
• Six-foot-10 center Chiekh Mbacke Diong, a Senegal native currently playing at Florida Prep, has seven scholarship offers from Memphis, Louisville, Pittsburgh, UNLV, UConn, DePaul and Florida Gulf Coast.

As for 2018, that’s a bit more convoluted, particularly since I get the sense the Tigers are focusing more attention on adding a couple players for next season, either via recruiting or the transfer market. However, after some more social media stalking, I did my best to figure out what 2018 recruits from out of state this current Memphis coaching staff has offered since taking over last April. Here’s the list in alphabetical order, although none of this should be taken as gospel given how fluid scholarship offers can be.

G Eric Ayala, 6-5 (Hockessin, Del.)

G Ignas Brazdeikis, 6-7 (Canada)

G Sam Chaput, 6-0 (Houston)

F Darius Days, 6-7 (Gainesville, Fla.)

G Devon Dotson, 6-1 (Charlotte)

F/C Souleymane Doumbia, 7-0 (San Antonio)

G Damon Harge, 5-9 (Arden, N.C.)

G Prentiss Hubb, 6-2, Washington D.C.

G/F Kamani Johnson, 6-6 (Atlanta)

G Antwann Jones, 6-5 (Tampa)

G Tre Jones, 6-1 (Apple Valley, Minn.)

F Isaiah Kelly, 6-7 (Atlanta)

F Justin Lee, 6-7 (Suwanee, Ga.)

F Khavon Moore, 6-8 (Macon, Ga.)

F Simisola Shittu, 6-8 (Canada)

G Elijah Weaver, 6-4 (Orlando)

F Zion Williamson, 6-7 (Spartansburg, S.C.)

F Sidney Wilson, 6-6 (Bronx, N.Y.)

Keon Clergeot draws a hometown crowd in South Florida

1. if the tigers win out, can we get an at large bid?

2. what are the chances everyone returns for next year? (No dedric to the NBA)

thanks,

Jason Shwer

It wouldn’t be a mailbag without a postseason hypothetical and a question about Dedric Lawson’s future.

First, let me reiterate what I’ve written previously when it comes to the postseason: I’ve got Memphis penciled in for 21 wins this regular season and do not think the Tigers will qualify for the NCAA tournament berth without winning the American Athletic Conference tournament. It’s also important to note that Memphis really only has one game left on its schedule — Tulane on March 2 — that you can say with any sort of certainty it will win.

That being said, Memphis could theoretically beat everyone left on its schedule, however unlikely that seems to me given its glaring flaws. So I went over to RPIforecast.com to get a sense of where the Tigers RPI might be if they go undefeated. That site projects Memphis to have an RPI of around 34 if it wins out, but gives the Tigers a 0.02 percent chance of accomplishing that feat. It’d have a projected RPI of around 43 with one loss the rest of the way and a projected RPI of about 52 with two more losses.

Obviously, no two bubbles are alike, but last year’s NCAA tournament field provides some guidance here. Syracuse received an at-large bid last year with an RPI of 71, but it also had six top-100 wins. Tulsa, meanwhile, made the field as an at large with an RPI of 58 and two top-100 wins. Both Syracuse and Tulsa had a strength of schedule ranked among the top 100 teams in the country.

Memphis currently sits at No. 82 in the RPI with two top 100 wins and a strength of schedule ranked No. 131 in the nation. The Tigers do have the potential for four more top-100 victories at the moment, and that doesn’t even include a possible AAC tournament run. So yes, we can all keep dreaming about the NCAA tournament for now, especially if the Tigers close out the regular season strong.

This goes hand in hand with the second part of Jason’s question. My answer is Dedric Lawson wasn’t projected to be picked in the NBA draft last year and, as of now, that still appears to be the case. The folks over at DraftExpress, who are generally pretty plugged into what NBA executives are thinking, don’t even have Lawson among its top 100 prospects at the moment. There are only 60 picks in each NBA draft.

I’m not sure, however, if that means Dedric Lawson is coming back to Memphis next year. He is undoubtedly going to be a role player at the next level and I have my doubts as to whether being a star with the Tigers for another season will really help elevate his stock in the eyes of NBA scouts. He’s already one of the best players in program history and his lack of elite athleticism is unlikely to change at this point. I do think he needs to become a knockdown 3-point shooter because his best chance for sticking in the NBA is as a stretch four. But he can develop that skill in the NBA D-League if he wants to.

My expectation is that Lawson will do exactly what he did a year ago: Declare for the draft without an agent and re-evaluate his options after attending the NBA Pre-draft camp in June. It was interesting, however, to hear Dedric’s response when asked to evaluate Coach Tubby Smith’s first season at Memphis. The first two words out of his mouth were “phenomenal” and “unexpected.”

At this point, though, I don’t think Dedric Lawson even knows what his basketball future beyond this season will look like. I'd say it's a 50-50 proposition he returns.